12 Oct Meta — Muse Wonder and Muse Wonder Full released7 Oct Anthropic — Claude Haiku 5.5 launches at $0.10 / $0.506 Oct Mistral — Mistral Large 4 enters public preview1 Oct Microsoft — Microsoft ships streaming transcription and MAI-Voice-2.130 Sep Google — Gemini 4 Argon announced29 Sep OpenAI — GPT-6.1 Sol arrives in the API28 Sep Anthropic — Claude Sonnet 5.5 released22 Sep Anthropic — Claude Opus 5.5 released
12 Oct Meta — Muse Wonder and Muse Wonder Full released7 Oct Anthropic — Claude Haiku 5.5 launches at $0.10 / $0.506 Oct Mistral — Mistral Large 4 enters public preview1 Oct Microsoft — Microsoft ships streaming transcription and MAI-Voice-2.130 Sep Google — Gemini 4 Argon announced29 Sep OpenAI — GPT-6.1 Sol arrives in the API28 Sep Anthropic — Claude Sonnet 5.5 released22 Sep Anthropic — Claude Opus 5.5 released
AI Model Observatory · data as of
Who is actually winningthe AI race— by job, with receipts.
29 frontier models from 15 labs, compared on intelligence, coding, price, speed, open weights and voice. Every number links to where it came from. Where we could not verify a figure you see a dash — never a guess.
The six verdictsThere is no single winner — there is a winner per job
01Best overall reasoning
Claude Opus 5.5
Anthropic
Scores 58 at max effort.
Next: Claude Sonnet 5.5 56, Muse Wonder Full 56, Claude Fable 5.1 53.
Caveat At that setting it costs $5.98 per index task and waits 691.7s before the first token.
How we scored it
Highest Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index (independent).
Next: Claude Opus 5.5 66.4%, GPT-6 Astra 57.9%, Claude Fable 5.1 55.8%.
Caveat Every Terminal-Bench figure here is vendor-reported; we could not load an independent coding leaderboard on this date. On a different test, DeepSWE v1.1, Gemini 4 Argon leads at 77.9% (also vendor-reported) — so this verdict is contested.
How we scored it
Highest Terminal-Bench 4.0 resolution rate — the coding test inside the AA index.
Next: GLM-5.3 45 (GLM-5.3 License (commercial use with restrictions)), Kimi K3 44 (Kimi K3 License (commercial use with restrictions)), DeepSeek V4.1 Flash 39 (MIT).
Caveat Open weights means you may host it yourself; check each licence — several allow commercial use only with restrictions.
How we scored it
Highest AA Intelligence Index among models whose weights are published.
Flip the switches above and every chart and the leaderboard redraw together. Each mark is a figure from the data file; a model with no verified figure is left out of that chart and named underneath it. Click any model to send it to the compare tray.
Intelligence vs price
The value frontier
Up and to the left is better: smarter for less. Models on the line have nothing both smarter and cheaper. The price axis is logarithmic — each labelled gridline is ten times the last.
Closed weights
Open weights
Not verified
Value frontier
Speed
Output speed
Release timeline
Who shipped, and when
One lane per lab, newest shipper on top. Dates are to scale.
03Frontier model leaderboard
Every figure, every source
Click a column to sort. Index is the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index — higher is better. Prices are US dollars per million tokens. A † marks a figure with a caveat; hover or tap it. A dash means no verified figure.
Frontier AI model leaderboard — 29 models, data as of 13 Oct 2026
The input filter only matches models whose input types we verified; unverified models drop out when you pick one. “est” = Artificial Analysis marks the score as an estimate. 214 of 493 tracked data points are blank for lack of a verifiable source.
04Head to head
Put two to four in the ring
Pick models here, from the leaderboard, or by clicking any chart. The radar is relative to your picks: on each spoke the best of the models you chose reaches the rim and the others are drawn as their true share of it.
05For business owners
Which model for my job?
Pick the job. The answer is computed from the data on this page, so it moves when the leaderboard moves.
06Voice agents
Models that talk
Speech-to-speech models are scored separately. S2S index and the agentic score come from Artificial Analysis; cost is per hour of input audio.
Voice model
Lab
S2S index
Agentic
First audio
$ / hour
GPT-Live-1 (Astra, medium)
OpenAI
83.2
74.5%
1.34s
$5.83
Gemini 3.8 Live Extended Thinking (High)
Google / DeepMind
82.6
68.6%
1.35s
$3.50
Grok Voice Think Fast 2.0 High
xAI (SpaceXAI)
81.3
56.5%
0.7s
$4.80
GPT-Live-1 (Sol, low)
OpenAI
80.1
59.3%
1.24s
$4.47
Gemini 3.8 Live
Google / DeepMind
76.0
30.1%
1.18s
$0.84
GPT-Realtime-2.1 High
OpenAI
75.2
45.7%
1.21s
$10.75
07The labs
Newest models and latest move
Anthropic
Claude Opus 5.5index 58 · 22 Sep 2026
Claude Sonnet 5.5index 56 · 28 Sep 2026
Claude Haiku 5.5index 43 · 7 Oct 2026
Claude Fable 5.1index 53 · 1 Sep 2026
Latest · 7 Oct 2026Shipped Claude Haiku 5.5 at $0.10 / $0.50 per million tokens for prompts up to 100k tokens — a tenth of the previous Haiku's price. source
OpenAI
GPT-6 Astraindex 53 · 3 Sep 2026
GPT-6.1 Solindex 52 · 29 Sep 2026
GPT-6 Lunaindex 38 · 22 Sep 2026
Latest · 29 Sep 2026GPT-6.1 Sol is listed in the API at $2 / $10 per million tokens, described by OpenAI as near-Astra performance at lower cost. source
Google / DeepMind
Gemini 4 Argonindex 53 · 30 Sep 2026
Gemini 3.8 Flashindex 41 · 2 Sep 2026
Gemini 3.5 Flash-Liteindex 22 · —
Gemma 4 31Bindex 15 · 2 Apr 2026
Latest · 30 Sep 2026Announced Gemini 4 Argon. Access starts with vetted cyber defenders, then paid API customers and AI Ultra subscribers; introductory price $2 / $10. source
Meta
Muse Wonder Fullindex 56 · 12 Oct 2026
Muse Wonderindex 52 · 12 Oct 2026
Muse Spark 1.3index 48 · 2 Sep 2026
Muse Glimmer 30Bindex 17 · 10 Aug 2026
Latest · 12 Oct 2026Released Muse Wonder (Meta Model API and Muse Code) and Muse Wonder Full (Muse Code subscribers only). source
xAI (SpaceXAI)
Grok 4.7index 46 · 21 Sep 2026
Latest · 21 Sep 2026Released Grok 4.7 at $2 / $6 per million tokens, with a fast variant at twice the speed and twice the price. source
Mistral
Mistral Large 4index 38 · 6 Oct 2026
Mistral Small 4index 11 · —
Latest · 6 Oct 2026Put Mistral Large 4 (1 trillion parameters, 52B active) into public preview at $1.36 / $4.18; open weights promised by the end of October 2026. source
DeepSeek
DeepSeek V4.1 Flashindex 39 · 10 Sep 2026
DeepSeek V4 Pro 0813index 36 · 13 Aug 2026
Latest · 10 Sep 2026Released DeepSeek V4.1 Flash with weights on Hugging Face; off-peak API rates are half of peak. source
Moonshot AI (Kimi)
Kimi K3index 44 · 16 Jul 2026
Kimi K2.7 Codeindex 26 · —
Latest · 16 Jul 2026Kimi K3 (2.8T parameters, 104B active) is the current flagship, with open weights under the Kimi K3 License. source
Alibaba (Qwen)
Qwen3.8 Maxindex 45 · 2 Sep 2026
Qwen3.8 27Bindex 34 · 14 Aug 2026
Latest · 2 Sep 2026Qwen3.8 Max (0902 snapshot) lists at $2 / $6 on Alibaba Cloud's international region. source
Amazon
Nova 2.0 Pro (Preview)index 14 · 27 Nov 2025
Latest · 27 Nov 2025Nova 2.0 Pro remains in preview; Artificial Analysis still marks its intelligence score as an estimate. source
Microsoft
No frontier chat model tracked in the leaderboard
Latest · 1 Oct 2026Launched MAI-Transcribe-2-Streaming ($0.54 per audio hour, introductory) plus MAI-Voice-2.1 ($22 per million characters) and a Flash voice ($15). Microsoft's current first-party push is voice, not a frontier chat model. source
Z AI (GLM)
GLM-5.3index 45 · 18 Aug 2026
Latest · 18 Aug 2026GLM-5.3 scores 45 on the Artificial Analysis index with open weights. source
Xiaomi (MiMo)
MiMo-V2.6-Proindex 46 · 21 Sep 2026
Latest · 21 Sep 2026MiMo-V2.6-Pro: MIT-licensed open weights scoring 46 on the Artificial Analysis index at $0.13 per index task. source
Inception
Mercury 2.5index 12 · 8 Sep 2026
Latest · 8 Sep 2026Mercury 2.5 measured at 705.8 output tokens per second. source
Celeris
Celeris-1index 6 · —
Latest · —Celeris-1 measured at 1,522 output tokens per second — the fastest row on the leaderboard, with a low intelligence score. source
08On the radar
The last 60 days
Meta
Muse Wonder and Muse Wonder Full released
Wonder is on the Meta Model API and Muse Code; Wonder Full is limited to Muse Code subscribers. Artificial Analysis scores Wonder Full at 56, tied for second overall.
Microsoft ships streaming transcription and MAI-Voice-2.1
MAI-Transcribe-2-Streaming covers 60 languages at $0.54 per audio hour (introductory); two new text-to-speech voices at $22 and $15 per million characters.
Introductory $2 / $10, rising to $4 / $20. Google reports 77.9% on DeepSWE v1.1. Rollout starts with vetted cyber defenders; not generally available yet.
Subscribers sue four labs over an alleged pact to slow AI development
After Anthropic's CEO published a 12 September essay urging the industry to pace frontier work — backed the same day by the heads of OpenAI, xAI and Google DeepMind — paying subscribers filed a proposed class action in the Northern District of California alleging illegal coordination. No ruling has been made.
Each “Who's winning” verdict is a single stated rule applied to the table — no editorial weighting. A model counts as “capable” for the value and speed verdicts when it scores 40 or higher on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index. Scores marked as estimates are excluded from every verdict and from the price chart.
AA cost per index task: Artificial Analysis — average USD cost to run one Intelligence Index task at the listed reasoning setting. Independent.
Speed, tokens / sec: Artificial Analysis — median output tokens per second on the vendor's own API. Independent.
Time to first token, sec: Artificial Analysis — seconds until the first answer token, including thinking time. Independent.
Terminal-Bench 4.0 %: Terminal-Bench 4.0 resolution rate (agentic coding in a terminal). Figures here are vendor-reported.
GDPval-AA Elo: GDPval-AA v2.1 Elo (real-world knowledge-work tasks), run by Artificial Analysis; figures here were read from vendor announcement pages.
SWE-bench Verified %: SWE-bench Verified. Not populated — see field notes.
Arena text Elo: Arena (formerly LMArena) text Elo. Not populated — see field notes.
Independent measurements are preferred over a lab's own claims. Where only the lab has published a number, it is labelled vendor-reported. Where two sources disagree, both are kept in the note on that figure. Release dates taken from a tracker rather than the lab's own page are flagged as such.
Charts are drawn to scale from the same data file as the table. Nothing is interpolated: a model with no verified figure for a chart is left out of it and listed in the line beneath. The Reasoning switch set to Low swaps in the lowest reasoning setting Artificial Analysis measured, for the models where one was measured; the rest stay at their only measured setting.